Matchup Status (Week 14)
Games Completed (1)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 17.3 | 13.8 | 17.3 | 0.0 |
Games Pending (15)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 15.3 | 20.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 16.4 | 15.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 18.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.1 | 16.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.6 | 16.5 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 12.1 | --- |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | 11.0 |
Opponent: Meat Pistols
Opponent Games Completed (1)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | ✓ 24.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | +15.1 |
Opponent Games Pending (15)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| DJ Moore | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.8 | 11.9 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | 7.9 | --- |
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | 14.7 | --- |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 3.7 | --- |
| Ray Davis (bench) | RB | BE | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Executive Summary
Week 14 presents a favorable matchup against Meat Pistols despite trailing 24.0-17.3 after Thursday. Jacoby Brissett headlines as our top play, having scored 18+ points in all seven starts for Arizona - we're trusting his consistency over Jordan Love's cold weather risk at Lambeau (15°F, wind chill near zero). JSN leads the NFL in receiving yards and faces a Falcons defense that's allowed the 5th-most WR points since Week 9. Bucky Irving returns to a full workload against New Orleans, who've surrendered 100+ rushing yards to four different backs this season. Our projected 122.3 points gives us a comfortable 44-point edge if actualized.
Key Insights
- Brissett BOOM: 18+ pts in all 7 starts, 300+ yds in 3 straight games. LAR gave up 22.5 to Bryce Young last week.
- JSN bounce-back: Last week's 23 yards was an outlier in a 26-0 blowout. ATL allowed 5th-most WR pts since Week 9.
- Irving smash spot: NO is 26th vs RB. Four backs have 100+ yards against them. Irving had 81 total yards, TD in return.
- Weather factor: Love faces severe cold (15°F, wind chill ~0°F) at Lambeau. Favoring dome QB Brissett.
- Rice ceiling capped: HOU is #2 vs WR with Stingley likely shadowing. Still WR2 on volume.
- Hunter Henry ON BYE (NE). Hampton/MHJ on IR.
Recommended Starting Lineup
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 15.3 | 20.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| RB | Bucky Irving | NO | 16.4 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | CLE | 8.6 | 9.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 20.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | HOU | 17.1 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | DAL | 16.9 | 17.3 | BOOM | ACTUAL |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.3 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Lineup Decisions
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Brissett 18+ pts in ALL 7 starts vs Love's cold weather risk (15F, wind chill near 0). Consistency wins.
WR: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Keenan Allen - JSN is NFL receiving yards leader (1,336). Allen has 63% bust rate and Herbert injury risk.
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan - Williams ALREADY SCORED 17.3 pts Thursday. McMillan is bench-caliber rookie.
XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 44.9% | 34.9% | 20.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | --- | 0.0 | BUST | 36.7% | 43.8% | 19.5% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.1 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 33.6% | 35.1% | 31.3% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.6 | 16.5 | MODERATE | 26.6% | 50.8% | 22.6% |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 24.1% | 47.2% | 28.7% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 15.3 | 20.0 | BOOM | 23.1% | 44.4% | 32.4% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.6 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 17.3% | 47.0% | 35.7% |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 6.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 13.3% | 37.0% | 49.7% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 64.5% | 24.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | --- | 11.0 | MODERATE | 11.1% | 36.6% | 52.3% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 12.1 | 0.0 | BUST | 11.0% | 32.3% | 56.7% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 16.9 | 17.3 | BOOM | 10.7% | 38.1% | 51.2% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 10.5 | 8.0 | BUST | 10.5% | 35.9% | 53.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 9.5% | 29.0% | 61.5% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.4 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 9.1% | 37.0% | 53.9% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | --- | 0.0 | BUST | 8.7% | 31.2% | 60.1% |
Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 28% boom, 24% bust. Love has 2+ TDs in 3 of last 6. vs CHI (22nd vs passing). BUT SEVERE WEATHER: 15F kickoff, wind chill near 0, snow possible. Cold weather risk. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within [9-24]).
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 22 | ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 70% BOOM (historical, range 16-28). XGB: 23% boom, 32% bust (MEDIUM). LLM DISAGREES with XGB - Brissett has 18+ pts in ALL 7 starts, 300+ yds in 3 straight. LAR gave up 22.5 pts to Bryce Young. Despite XGB caution, historical consistency dominates. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within [16-28]).
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 10
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%
XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)
Bucky Irving (TB vs NO)
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 61% MOD, 22% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 54% bust (MEDIUM). XGB shows high bust risk but vs NO (26th vs RB). 4 RBs have 100+ yds vs Saints. Irving had 81 total yds, TD in return. Trusting matchup over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within [8-20]).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 15
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 20% BUST, 61% MOD, 18% BOOM. XGB: 17% boom, 36% bust. Spears in timeshare but Tony Pollard questionable. CLE 9th vs RB - tough matchup. Projected 9.0 for floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within [5-14]).
Context: O/U: 38.0 | Def Rank: 9
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: Hampton practiced FULL Friday per Reddit. BUT traded from CAR to LAC mid-season. Still working into offense. vs KC. Mode: BUST until clearer role. Projection: 0.0 pts (IR status).
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 25
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)
Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 29% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Wilson is RB3 behind Josh Jacobs. SEVERE WEATHER may help run game but limited touches expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within [0-8]).
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 34% BUST, 43% MOD, 23% BOOM (range 12-26). XGB: 11% boom, 24% bust. JSN leads NFL in receiving yards (1,336). ATL 15th vs WR but allowed 5th most WR pts since Week 9. Last week's 23 yds was outlier (26-0 blowout). Bounce-back candidate. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.0 pts (within [12-26]).
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 1
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs BYE)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 33% MOD, 17% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust. With Kyler OUT, Brissett targets McMillan heavily. vs LAR (tough). Young WR still developing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within [7-21]).
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: MHJ OUT for remainder of 2025 season per reports. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BUST, 29% MOD, 47% BOOM. XGB: 31% boom, 31% bust (MEDIUM). Rice has 7+ targets in all 6 games since return, 8-92-2 last week. BUT HOU is #2 vs WR with Stingley likely shadowing. Tough matchup dampens BOOM odds. Mode: MODERATE (lower end due to coverage). Projection: 16.0 pts (within [10-22]).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 2 | ECR: 6
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%
XGB (This Week): Boom 34% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)
Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)
Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 17.3 (BOOM)
Reasoning: Thursday game COMPLETED. Actual: 17.3 pts. Game result preserved.
Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16
MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 63% BUST, 26% MOD, 11% BOOM. XGB: 10% boom, 54% bust. Allen has 63% historical bust rate. Herbert injured (wrist surgery), may not play. If Trey Lance starts, massive downgrade. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within [3-13]).
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 28% BUST, 35% MOD, 36% BOOM. XGB: 24% boom, 29% bust. Johnson has 18-208-2 in last 4 games with Shough. 27.8% boom chance leads TEs. Questionable (knee) but expected to play. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within [6-12]).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 6
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)
Hunter Henry (NE vs BYE)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: Patriots on BYE Week 14. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 23%
Notes: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 28% boom, 24% bust. Love has 2+ TDs in 3 of last 6. vs CHI (22nd vs passing). BUT SEVERE WEATHER: 15F kickoff, wind chill near 0, snow possible. Cold weather risk. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within [9-24]).
Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs BYE
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 11.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 33% MOD, 17% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust. With Kyler OUT, Brissett targets McMillan heavily. vs LAR (tough). Young WR still developing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within [7-21]).
Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%
Notes: MHJ OUT for remainder of 2025 season per reports. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57%
Notes: Hampton practiced FULL Friday per Reddit. BUT traded from CAR to LAC mid-season. Still working into offense. vs KC. Mode: BUST until clearer role. Projection: 0.0 pts (IR status).
Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50%
Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 29% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Wilson is RB3 behind Josh Jacobs. SEVERE WEATHER may help run game but limited touches expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within [0-8]).
Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54%
Notes: MC: 63% BUST, 26% MOD, 11% BOOM. XGB: 10% boom, 54% bust. Allen has 63% historical bust rate. Herbert injured (wrist surgery), may not play. If Trey Lance starts, massive downgrade. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within [3-13]).
Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BYE
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%
Notes: Patriots on BYE Week 14. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
High Threat Players (>35% Boom)
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability
Opponent Starter Analysis
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 | MODERATE | 48% | 37% | 16% | HIGH | |
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 | MODERATE | 27% | 46% | 27% | MEDIUM | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 9.1 | 11.9 | MODERATE | 23% | 52% | 25% | MEDIUM | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 | MODERATE | 15% | 55% | 30% | LOW | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 13% | 36% | 51% | LOW | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 | BUST | 12% | 34% | 54% | LOW | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | MODERATE | 12% | 42% | 46% | LOW | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 | BUST | 11% | 27% | 62% | LOW | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 8.9 | 8.9 | BUST | 11% | 26% | 63% | LOW | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 | BUST | 10% | 34% | 57% | LOW |
Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)
Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)
Top Free Agents by Boom Potential
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 11.8 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.1 | 33% | 42% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 9.3 | 32% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.0 | 28% | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 8.7 | 28% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.1 | 27% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.7 | 27% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 5.9 | 26% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.2 | 21% | 37% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 15.3 | 19% | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.6 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Evan McPherson | K | 8.3 | 17% | 53% | 0.0% |
QB Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15.3 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 19% | 50% | |
| Kyler Murray | 17.2 | BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% | 14% | 45% | |
| Justin Fields | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 14% | 49% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 13% | 41% |
RB Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11.8 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% | 42% | 20% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 33% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.7 | BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% | 27% | 26% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.2 | BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% | 21% | 37% | |
| Devin Neal | 8.7 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 47% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10.9 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% | 14% | 49% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 9% | 58% |
WR Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.1 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% | 27% | 39% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.6 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% | 18% | 46% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.3 | BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% | 12% | 58% | |
| Tre Tucker | 10.1 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% | 9% | 42% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.5 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 0% | 0% |
TE Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 9.3 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% | 32% | 22% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 8.7 | BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% | 28% | 26% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.3 | BUST:44%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:18% | 8% | 56% |
Streaming Options
K Streamers
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.1 | 33% | 42% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | |
| Evan McPherson | 8.3 | 17% | 53% |
D/ST Streamers
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 5.9 | 26% | 31% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 7.2 | 22% | 43% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% |
Monte Carlo Projection Report
Matchup Summary
Win Probability
Margin Distribution (80% Range)
Floor: -9.6 pts | Median: +29.7 pts | Ceiling: +67.4 pts
Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | QUESTIONABLE | 12.2 | Sam LaPorta | 11.9 |
Opponent Lineup Scenarios
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 89.6 | 82.6% | +28.3 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 91.4 | 82.1% | +27.2 |
My Team
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 20.0 | 4.5-28.2 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% |  |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.4-24.5 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 12% |  |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.1-19.8 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 27% |  |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 18.0 | 5.6-29.9 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 7% |  |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 16.0 | 7.2-28.1 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% |  |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.3 | 4.2-25.5 | ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% |  |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-16.9 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 25% |  |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.0-17.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 44% |  |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 4.5-16.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 16.5 | 6.5-28.2 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% |  |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 2.5-23.9 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% |  |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.4-19.9 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 43% |  |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 4.9-26.0 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 11% |  |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |  |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 4.5-25.8 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 14% |  |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.4-22.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% |  |
Opponent
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 20.2 | 9.7-31.4 | ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Nick Chubb | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.6-15.9 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 44% |  |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 7.7 | 0.4-17.0 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 43% |  |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 11.8 | 4.2-23.1 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% |  |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.5-18.7 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 32% |  |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.3 | 2.1-15.9 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 32% |  |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 9.6 | 2.7-18.4 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% |  |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.3 | 0.0-20.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 59% |  |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.3-16.4 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 23% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.4-26.6 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 17% |  |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.3 | 11.4-35.0 | ↑15+: 71% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.1-20.8 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.3-16.1 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% |  |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.6-19.9 | ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 20% |  |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-16.1 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 47% |  |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 1.9-15.5 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
Scenario Details
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 22% @ 23.8 | 61% @ 14.0 | 17% @ 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 23% @ 29.4 | 43% @ 18.6 | 34% @ 7.2 | 17.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 47% @ 24.2 | 29% @ 15.7 | 25% @ 7.9 | 17.8 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 18% @ 20.4 | 61% @ 8.9 | 20% @ 3.0 | 9.8 |
| Jason Myers | K | 22% @ 15.9 | 44% @ 11.2 | 34% @ 5.8 | 10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 36% @ 14.7 | 35% @ 9.2 | 28% @ 3.6 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 26% @ 24.0 | 41% @ 15.2 | 33% @ 5.6 | 14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 70% @ 21.7 | 5% @ 14.8 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 23% @ 16.3 | 40% @ 8.0 | 37% @ 1.3 | 7.5 |
Waiver Wire Notes
No urgent moves needed. Consider streaming options if needing upside - Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) has 27.5% boom probability.
Injury Concerns
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (OUT): Season-ending injury confirmed
- Hunter Henry (BYE): Patriots on bye Week 14
- Omarion Hampton (IR): Practiced full Friday but still on IR
- Juwan Johnson (Questionable (knee)): Expected to play, monitor Sunday
ESPN Projection Accuracy
XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration
LLM vs ESPN Comparison
Data Quality & Discrepancies
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
Week 14 Discrepancy Log
No discrepancies detected this week.