Week 14 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-12-05 20:26

Matchup Status (Week 14)

17.3 - 24.0 vs Meat Pistols

Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 17.3 13.8 17.3 0.0

Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 15.3 20.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 16.4 15.0
Tyjae Spears RB RB 8.6 9.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.9 18.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.1 16.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 10.0
Jason Myers K K 8.3 9.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.8 8.0
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE 6.1 6.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.6 16.5
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 10.5 8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 12.1 ---
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 0.0 11.0
17.3 Starter Actuals
105.0 Remaining Proj
122.3 Est. Total

Opponent: Meat Pistols

Opponent Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Brandon Aubrey K K ✓ 24.0 8.9 8.9 +15.1

Opponent Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Patrick Mahomes QB QB 17.9 20.1
Nick Chubb RB RB 5.3 7.5
Ollie Gordon II RB RB 3.2 7.8
Keon Coleman WR WR 6.7 9.2
Malik Washington WR WR 8.4 8.2
Dalton Kincaid TE TE 10.0 9.6
DJ Moore WR RB/WR/TE 12.8 11.9
Vikings D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.2 6.3
Chris Boswell (bench) K BE 7.9 ---
Christian McCaffrey (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
J.J. McCarthy (bench) QB BE 14.7 ---
Packers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 3.7 ---
Ray Davis (bench) RB BE 2.6 0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Sam LaPorta (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
24.0 Opp Actuals
80.6 Opp Remaining
104.6 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +17.7 pts

Executive Summary

Week 14 presents a favorable matchup against Meat Pistols despite trailing 24.0-17.3 after Thursday. Jacoby Brissett headlines as our top play, having scored 18+ points in all seven starts for Arizona - we're trusting his consistency over Jordan Love's cold weather risk at Lambeau (15°F, wind chill near zero). JSN leads the NFL in receiving yards and faces a Falcons defense that's allowed the 5th-most WR points since Week 9. Bucky Irving returns to a full workload against New Orleans, who've surrendered 100+ rushing yards to four different backs this season. Our projected 122.3 points gives us a comfortable 44-point edge if actualized.

Key Insights

Recommended Starting Lineup

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QBJacoby BrissettLAR15.320.0BOOMHIGH
RBBucky IrvingNO16.415.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RBTyjae SpearsCLE8.69.0MODERATELOW
WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaATL20.918.0MODERATEHIGH
WRRashee RiceHOU17.116.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJameson WilliamsDAL16.917.3BOOMACTUAL
TEJuwan JohnsonTB9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
KJason MyersATL8.39.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/STRams D/STARI6.88.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Lineup Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Brissett 18+ pts in ALL 7 starts vs Love's cold weather risk (15F, wind chill near 0). Consistency wins.

WR: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Keenan Allen - JSN is NFL receiving yards leader (1,336). Allen has 63% bust rate and Herbert injury risk.

FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan - Williams ALREADY SCORED 17.3 pts Thursday. McMillan is bench-caliber rookie.

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.39.0MODERATE44.9%34.9%20.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR---0.0BUST36.7%43.8%19.5%
Rashee RiceWR17.116.0MODERATE33.6%35.1%31.3%
Jordan LoveQB17.616.5MODERATE26.6%50.8%22.6%
Evan EngramTE8.16.0BUST25.3%49.2%25.5%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE24.1%47.2%28.7%
Jacoby BrissettQB15.320.0BOOM23.1%44.4%32.4%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.69.0MODERATE17.3%47.0%35.7%
Emanuel WilsonRB6.16.0BUST13.3%37.0%49.7%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.918.0MODERATE11.4%64.5%24.0%
Tetairoa McMillanWR---11.0MODERATE11.1%36.6%52.3%
Omarion HamptonRB12.10.0BUST11.0%32.3%56.7%
Jameson WilliamsWR16.917.3BOOM10.7%38.1%51.2%
Keenan AllenWR10.58.0BUST10.5%35.9%53.6%
Rams D/STD/ST6.88.0MODERATE9.5%29.0%61.5%
Bucky IrvingRB16.415.0MODERATE9.1%37.0%53.9%
Hunter HenryTE---0.0BUST8.7%31.2%60.1%

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 28% boom, 24% bust. Love has 2+ TDs in 3 of last 6. vs CHI (22nd vs passing). BUT SEVERE WEATHER: 15F kickoff, wind chill near 0, snow possible. Cold weather risk. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within [9-24]).

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 22 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)


Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BOOM (historical, range 16-28). XGB: 23% boom, 32% bust (MEDIUM). LLM DISAGREES with XGB - Brissett has 18+ pts in ALL 7 starts, 300+ yds in 3 straight. LAR gave up 22.5 pts to Bryce Young. Despite XGB caution, historical consistency dominates. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within [16-28]).

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 10

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%

XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)


Bucky Irving (TB vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 61% MOD, 22% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 54% bust (MEDIUM). XGB shows high bust risk but vs NO (26th vs RB). 4 RBs have 100+ yds vs Saints. Irving had 81 total yds, TD in return. Trusting matchup over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within [8-20]).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 15

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 20% BUST, 61% MOD, 18% BOOM. XGB: 17% boom, 36% bust. Spears in timeshare but Tony Pollard questionable. CLE 9th vs RB - tough matchup. Projected 9.0 for floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within [5-14]).

Context: O/U: 38.0 | Def Rank: 9

MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)


Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: Hampton practiced FULL Friday per Reddit. BUT traded from CAR to LAC mid-season. Still working into offense. vs KC. Mode: BUST until clearer role. Projection: 0.0 pts (IR status).

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 25

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)


Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 29% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Wilson is RB3 behind Josh Jacobs. SEVERE WEATHER may help run game but limited touches expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within [0-8]).

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 34% BUST, 43% MOD, 23% BOOM (range 12-26). XGB: 11% boom, 24% bust. JSN leads NFL in receiving yards (1,336). ATL 15th vs WR but allowed 5th most WR pts since Week 9. Last week's 23 yds was outlier (26-0 blowout). Bounce-back candidate. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.0 pts (within [12-26]).

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 1

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)


Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs BYE)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 33% MOD, 17% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust. With Kyler OUT, Brissett targets McMillan heavily. vs LAR (tough). Young WR still developing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within [7-21]).

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)


Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: MHJ OUT for remainder of 2025 season per reports. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)


Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BUST, 29% MOD, 47% BOOM. XGB: 31% boom, 31% bust (MEDIUM). Rice has 7+ targets in all 6 games since return, 8-92-2 last week. BUT HOU is #2 vs WR with Stingley likely shadowing. Tough matchup dampens BOOM odds. Mode: MODERATE (lower end due to coverage). Projection: 16.0 pts (within [10-22]).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 2 | ECR: 6

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%

XGB (This Week): Boom 34% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)


Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 17.3 (BOOM)

Reasoning: Thursday game COMPLETED. Actual: 17.3 pts. Game result preserved.

Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16

MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)


Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 63% BUST, 26% MOD, 11% BOOM. XGB: 10% boom, 54% bust. Allen has 63% historical bust rate. Herbert injured (wrist surgery), may not play. If Trey Lance starts, massive downgrade. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within [3-13]).

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)


Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 28% BUST, 35% MOD, 36% BOOM. XGB: 24% boom, 29% bust. Johnson has 18-208-2 in last 4 games with Shough. 27.8% boom chance leads TEs. Questionable (knee) but expected to play. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within [6-12]).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 6

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)


Hunter Henry (NE vs BYE)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: Patriots on BYE Week 14. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)


Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 23%

Notes: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 28% boom, 24% bust. Love has 2+ TDs in 3 of last 6. vs CHI (22nd vs passing). BUT SEVERE WEATHER: 15F kickoff, wind chill near 0, snow possible. Cold weather risk. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within [9-24]).


Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs BYE

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 11.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 33% MOD, 17% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust. With Kyler OUT, Brissett targets McMillan heavily. vs LAR (tough). Young WR still developing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within [7-21]).


Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%

Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.


Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%

Notes: MHJ OUT for remainder of 2025 season per reports. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.


Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57%

Notes: Hampton practiced FULL Friday per Reddit. BUT traded from CAR to LAC mid-season. Still working into offense. vs KC. Mode: BUST until clearer role. Projection: 0.0 pts (IR status).


Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50%

Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 29% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Wilson is RB3 behind Josh Jacobs. SEVERE WEATHER may help run game but limited touches expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within [0-8]).


Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54%

Notes: MC: 63% BUST, 26% MOD, 11% BOOM. XGB: 10% boom, 54% bust. Allen has 63% historical bust rate. Herbert injured (wrist surgery), may not play. If Trey Lance starts, massive downgrade. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within [3-13]).


Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BYE

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%

Notes: Patriots on BYE Week 14. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.


High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Patrick Mahomes QB 17.9 20.1 MODERATE 48% 37% 16% HIGH
Malik Washington WR 8.4 8.2 MODERATE 27% 46% 27% MEDIUM
DJ Moore WR 9.1 11.9 MODERATE 23% 52% 25% MEDIUM
Keon Coleman WR 6.7 9.2 MODERATE 15% 55% 30% LOW
Ray Davis RB 0.0 0.0 BUST 13% 36% 51% LOW
Ollie Gordon II RB 3.2 7.8 BUST 12% 34% 54% LOW
Vikings D/ST D/ST 5.2 6.3 MODERATE 12% 42% 46% LOW
Nick Chubb RB 5.3 7.5 BUST 11% 27% 62% LOW
Brandon Aubrey K 8.9 8.9 BUST 11% 26% 63% LOW
Dalton Kincaid TE 10.0 9.6 BUST 10% 34% 57% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)

Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)

DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)

Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)

Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)

Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)

Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)

Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)

Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)

Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 11.8 42% 20% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.1 33% 42% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 9.3 32% 22% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 9.7 28% 31% 0.0%
Tyler Allgeier RB 0.0 28% 33% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 8.7 28% 26% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.1 27% 39% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.7 27% 26% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 5.9 26% 31% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 7.2 22% 43% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.2 21% 37% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 15.3 19% 50% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 0.0 19% 43% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 8.6 18% 46% 0.0%
Evan McPherson K 8.3 17% 53% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Aaron Rodgers 15.3 BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% 19% 50%
Kyler Murray 17.2 BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% 14% 45%
Justin Fields 0.0 OUT:100% 14% 49%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 13% 41%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 11.8 BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% 42% 20%
Tyler Allgeier 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% 28% 33%
Isiah Pacheco 8.7 BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% 27% 26%
Trey Benson 8.2 BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% 21% 37%
Devin Neal 8.7 BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% 15% 47%
Chuba Hubbard 10.9 BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% 14% 49%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% 9% 58%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.1 BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% 27% 39%
Matthew Golden 8.6 BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% 18% 46%
Cooper Kupp 10.3 BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% 12% 58%
Tre Tucker 10.1 BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% 9% 42%
Jayden Reed 11.5 BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% 0% 0%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 9.3 BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% 32% 22%
Harold Fannin Jr. 8.7 BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% 28% 26%
Colston Loveland 9.3 BUST:44%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:18% 8% 56%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.1 33% 42%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 9.7 28% 31%
Evan McPherson 8.3 17% 53%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 5.9 26% 31%
Patriots D/ST 7.2 22% 43%
Commanders D/ST 0.0 19% 43%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 14 | Generated: 2025-12-05 20:26

Matchup Summary

83.6%

Win Probability

+29.2
Expected Margin
122.3
My Team (LLM Proj)
89.6
Opponent (Proj)
30.1
Margin Std Dev
118.7
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -9.6 pts | Median: +29.7 pts | Ceiling: +67.4 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
TE Dalton Kincaid QUESTIONABLE 12.2 Sam LaPorta 11.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 89.6 82.6% +28.3
All injured starters out 15.0% 91.4 82.1% +27.2

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 20.0 4.5-28.2 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.0 4.4-24.5 ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 12% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 9.0 2.1-19.8 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 27% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR HIGH 18.0 5.6-29.9 ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 7% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 16.0 7.2-28.1 ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.3 4.2-25.5 ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.5-16.9 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 25% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 0.0-17.5 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 44% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 9.0 4.5-16.5 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 16.5 6.5-28.2 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 0.0 2.5-23.9 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 6.0 0.4-19.9 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 43% Emanuel Wilson
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 11.0 4.9-26.0 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 8.0 4.5-25.8 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 14% Keenan Allen
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 0.0 3.4-22.1 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Patrick Mahomes QB MED 20.2 9.7-31.4 ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% Patrick Mahomes
Nick Chubb RB HIGH 7.5 1.6-15.9 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 44% Nick Chubb
Ollie Gordon II RB HIGH 7.7 0.4-17.0 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 43% Ollie Gordon II
DJ Moore WR HIGH 11.8 4.2-23.1 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% DJ Moore
Keon Coleman WR HIGH 9.2 2.5-18.7 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 32% Keon Coleman
Malik Washington WR HIGH 8.3 2.1-15.9 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 32% Malik Washington
Dalton Kincaid TE HIGH 9.6 2.7-18.4 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% Dalton Kincaid
Vikings D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.3 0.0-20.9 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 59% Vikings D/ST
Brandon Aubrey K HIGH 9.0 3.3-16.4 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 23% Brandon Aubrey

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
J.J. McCarthy QB HIGH 14.9 3.4-26.6 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 17% J.J. McCarthy
Christian McCaffrey RB MED 22.3 11.4-35.0 ↑15+: 71% | ↓5-: 0% Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson RB HIGH 10.3 2.1-20.8 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 31% Rhamondre Stevenson
Ray Davis RB HIGH 6.8 0.3-16.1 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% Ray Davis
Sam LaPorta TE HIGH 11.4 3.6-19.9 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 20% Sam LaPorta
Packers D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.8 0.0-16.1 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 47% Packers D/ST
Chris Boswell K HIGH 8.4 1.9-15.5 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% Chris Boswell

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 22% @ 23.8 61% @ 14.0 17% @ 4.3 14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 23% @ 29.4 43% @ 18.6 34% @ 7.2 17.1
Rashee Rice WR 47% @ 24.2 29% @ 15.7 25% @ 7.9 17.8
Tyjae Spears RB 18% @ 20.4 61% @ 8.9 20% @ 3.0 9.8
Jason Myers K 22% @ 15.9 44% @ 11.2 34% @ 5.8 10.3
Juwan Johnson TE 36% @ 14.7 35% @ 9.2 28% @ 3.6 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 26% @ 24.0 41% @ 15.2 33% @ 5.6 14.4
Jacoby Brissett QB 70% @ 21.7 5% @ 14.8 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Rams D/ST D/ST 23% @ 16.3 40% @ 8.0 37% @ 1.3 7.5

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent moves needed. Consider streaming options if needing upside - Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) has 27.5% boom probability.

Injury Concerns

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 14 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.